Risk Disclosure

What you are buying

When you buy a YES (or NO) share, you are buying a contingent claim that pays $1 if the underlying event resolves in your favor, and $0 otherwise. The price you pay reflects the market's current estimate of probability.

How you can lose money

• Wrong-direction loss: If your side does not resolve, your shares pay $0. Maximum loss is what you paid.
• Mark-to-market loss: Even before resolution, the market price moves with new trades. If you sell early, you may receive less than you paid.
• Slippage: Large trades move the LMSR price against you in real time. A $1,000 trade may average a worse price than the displayed quote.
• Withdrawal blocks: AML/KYC reviews may delay withdrawals. Funds remain yours but may not be immediately accessible.

What this is not

• Not gambling licensed by any gaming authority.
• Not investment advice. Not regulated investment products.
• Not a savings account. Balances do not earn interest.
• Not insured. There is no deposit-insurance scheme covering trader balances.

Liquidity

The LMSR provides a guaranteed counterparty, but at a price determined by market state. Thin markets have wider implied spreads — i.e., the cost to buy plus the cost to immediately sell may exceed the current quote.

Resolution risk

Some markets resolve via a single public source. If that source is wrong, delayed, or ambiguous, resolution may be delayed or disputed. The operator's final determination is binding.

Operator solvency

Trader funds are segregated from operating funds but are not insured against operator insolvency. Review the operator's published reserve audits before depositing meaningful sums.

Counterparty & rail risk

Crypto deposits depend on the underlying blockchain. Bank rails depend on Stripe, Paystack, or local equivalents. Outages on those rails can delay deposit or withdrawal regardless of platform status.

Self-assessment

Trade only with money you would be willing to set on fire. If a single losing trade would meaningfully affect your finances or your mental health, the position is too large.

By signing up you confirm you have read and understood these risks.